All 27 EU leaders eventually approved the €50bn aid package for Ukraine after weeks of resistance from the Hungarian government. It's veto had been the main obstacle to securing the unanimous approval required for it's passing.
Many EU bureaucrats were not in the slightest surprised, some even expected it, as it is not the first time Viktor Orbán has publicly criticised the EU’s spending. More than €500 million in COVID recovery funds are currently frozen from Hungary, with rule of law and corruption issues cited as needing to be addressed for their recovery.
So what's easier? take the necessary steps towards good governance or hijack the unanimous support needed to pass the EU's latest aid package for Ukraine. For Viktor Orbán it is the latter, using Hungary's veto to hold Kyiv hostage to demand loosening the EU requirements needed to unblock its funds.
Ukraine Can't Do it Alone
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky hasn't tried to hide the fact that Ukrainian troops are whole heartedly reliant on foreign assistance if they are to stand any chance against Russia. Rallying financial support from the West had seemed to fair well during the initial invasion, pushing hard talk of collective security, shared interests and ' brotherhood'.
But it hasn't lasted for long. American support, especially among the public, is already dwindling as haunted memories of Iraq and Afghanistan are once more brought up in Newsnights and across social media debates. Even more so, the prospect of a second Trump presidency, looking ever more likely, is squeezing Ukraine’s options and encouraging populists across Europe to pick up the “why Ukraine, why not me” line. Day by day, the West is started to look less like a sure partner for Ukraine's war against Russia.
Blaming Ukraine at Home
Orbán knows this well, leading the scapegoating of Ukraine, alleging that EU funds are being withheld from Hungary because Brussels has spent too much money supporting wars. These narratives are common in Hungary, with the government pumping millions into YouTube and Facebook ads opposing financing Ukraine’s war and launching national billboard posters that vilify Volodymyr Zelensky and EU elites as 'anti-peace'.
Holding the Aid Hostage
The €50bn aid package for Ukraine, well this presented a perfect moment for Viktor Orbán, proposing only to lift his veto in exchange for extra time to complete milestones necessary to access Hungary's blocked EU funds.
At one point, Orbán was even asked to leave the room to “grab a coffee” so that everyone else could discuss and vote on technicalities necessary to keep the financial package for Ukraine moving.
Europe's heads of state are forced to sit through Orbán’s veto, knowing that without someone giving in, Ukraine's bullets, missiles and drones are running out. One last try!, Orbán persists, trying unblock Hungary's frozen funds with whatever leverage he has left knowing that any governance reform in Hungary is harmful for the survival for him and his government. Neighbouring countries look on with fear, coming to the realisation that the EU isn’t the deterrent to Russian aggression in European that it once used to be.
Ukraine is Released from Orbán's Hold
Eventually, the financial package for Ukraine is approved by all 27 EU members, including Hungary but not without cost. Orbán has leveraged Hungary's veto to keep Ukraine front and centre for populist movements across Europe, waiting eagerly for Trump to pick up from where he left and expose the flaws of Ukraine’s reliance on the West’s support to finance it’s war with Russia.
But demands for reform of the rule of law and corruption in Hungary still stand and to unlock blocked EU funds for Hungary, Orbán will have to do a lot more than wave his hands and stand in the way of the door. Who will be Orbán’s next hostage or is it time to address the rule of law and corruption in Hungary?